Simeka: Markets at a Glance – August 2026

US CPI slowed for a second month from 3.5% to 3.4%, as the impact of the energy price shock caused by the Middle East conflict continued to ease.
Despite this improvement, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address reignited interest rate-hike expectations, as he reminded investors that inflation remains well above the 2% target, keeping a potential rate hike on the table.
US debt passed the $40 trillion mark, fuelling volatility in global bond markets and renewed concerns over the US dollar’s safe-haven status.
Against this backdrop of a growing debt burden, investors rotated out of the US dollar and into gold, which rose over 12% during the month to near the $4,500 an ounce mark.
Middle East ceasefire talks continued through the month, though with no clear resolution in sight, and oil ended at $90 a barrel, a rise of 2.9% over the month.
Despite this volatility, market sentiment was “risk-on” with earnings remaining robust: the MSCI World and S&P 500 both rose 2.6%, with the S&P 500 reaching a mid-month all-time high, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index outperformed with a 3.2% return (all in USD), supported by a weaker dollar and continued AI and tech demand in Asia. Over the past 12 months, the MSCI World Index has returned 20.8% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index 36.6% (both in USD), with emerging markets remaining comfortably ahead.

Gold’s rally was felt close to home too, lifting local equity markets alongside the improving inflation backdrop.
Inflation cooled for the first time in five months, easing from 5.0% to 4.3%, driven mainly by softer food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, smaller municipal tariff increases, and lower fuel prices.
This likely strengthens the case for the Reserve Bank to hold interest rates at 7% at its September meeting while it assesses the potential fallout from the Middle East conflict.
While inflation improved, the unemployment rate rose to 33.6% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 32.7% – the highest level since 2022.
SA equities, measured by the FTSE/JSE ALSI, rose 4.6%, boosted by the resources sector, which climbed 26.4% – with gold counters leading the charge, as AngloGold Ashanti alone rose over 40%, while laggards included Naspers, which fell 9%. The FTSE/JSE ALBI delivered a steady 0.7%, while property lagged with a return of -3.8%. On a 12-month basis, the FTSE/JSE ALSI returned 18.4%, well ahead of the MSCI World’s 10.2% in rand terms.
The rand strengthened meaningfully by 2.7% against the US dollar, moving from R16.56 to R16.12, briefly dipping below the critical R16.00 level intra-month, as dollar weakness combined with the softer local inflation print to support the currency.