Read the Review here….<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\nSummary<\/h3>\n
Global:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Global equities surged over the month, supported by continued strength in technology shares and the ceasefire extension. The S&P 500 reached record highs, though gains were led by emerging markets, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising 9.5% (USD), driven by strong AI-related growth across Taiwan and South Korea. Developed markets also delivered solid returns, with the MSCI World Index up 4.6% (USD), underpinned by resilient corporate earnings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n- Oil prices declined meaningfully from USD 118 to USD 91 per barrel (decline of 22.8%) amid an extension of the truce in the Middle East. Gold fell by 1.5% over the month and holding steady around $4,500.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n- US-China relations showed signs of improvement following a positive engagement between the respective Presidents, with indications of enhanced economic cooperation between the world\u2019s two largest economies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n- US inflation (CPI) increased to 3.8% from 3.3%, well above the Fed\u2019s 2% target, reflecting ongoing price pressures, particularly from technology, energy and wages.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n- Kevin Warsh was formally sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair, marking a transition in US monetary policy leadership. First chair to be sworn in at the White House in more than a decade, raises concerns of independence.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n- The US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%. While job creation continues and layoffs remain contained, hiring momentum has moderated, pointing to a more balanced but increasingly fragile labour market. Beyond the US, several large European companies continue with wide-spread lay-off\u2019s.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n- The IMF revised its 2026 global growth forecast down from 3.4% to 3.1%, reflecting the impact of Middle East tensions, higher energy prices, and tighter financial conditions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Local (South Africa):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Local bonds outperformed equities over the month, with the FTSE\/JSE All Bond Index returning 2.9%, compared to a -0.3% decline for the FTSE\/JSE All Share Index (ALSI). On a one-year basis, the ALSI is up 25.8% (ZAR), slightly trailing the MSCI World (28.0% USD) and lagging in rand terms (15.3%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n- The unemployment rate rose to 32.7% in Q1 2026 from 31.4% in Q4 2025, underscoring persistent structural challenges in the domestic labour market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n- Inflation accelerated to 4.0% from 3.1%, driven primarily by higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Inflation is expected to average 4.7% in 2026 as second-round effects gradually feed through.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n- The South African Reserve Bank increased the repo rate by 25bps to 7.0%, with the Monetary Policy Committee highlighting rising upside risks to inflation, including the oil shock, higher fuel costs, and an uncertain global environment. The outlook for medium-term policy rates remains dependent on a resolution of the conflict, but two further hikes are being priced into the market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n- The Rand strengthened by 3.6% against the US Dollar, from R16.83\/USD to R16.22\/USD, supported by improved global risk sentiment.<\/li>\n
- Both Moody\u2019s and S&P kept South Africa\u2019s credit rating unchanged, with Moody\u2019s revising the outlook to positive. This points to a potential upgrade if fiscal discipline is maintained, supported by stabilising debt and ongoing reforms in areas such as energy and logistics.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
This publication provides a monthly review of major indexes, important macroeconomic indicators and an overview of the highs and lows of the stock market for the period.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":11016,"featured_media":3021,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3256],"tags":[],"post_folder":[],"class_list":["post-4259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11016"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4259"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4259\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4265,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4259\/revisions\/4265"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4259"},{"taxonomy":"post_folder","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_folder?post=4259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}