{"id":4382,"date":"2026-10-02T06:06:50","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T04:06:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/?p=4382"},"modified":"2026-10-02T06:07:28","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T04:07:28","slug":"simeka-markets-at-a-glance-september-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/2026\/10\/02\/simeka-markets-at-a-glance-september-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Simeka: Markets at a Glance – September 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

This publication provides a monthly review of major indexes, important macroeconomic indicators and an overview of the highs and lows of the stock market for the period.<\/p>\n

Read the full review…<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Summary<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

G<\/strong>lobal:<\/strong><\/h4>\n
    \n
  • US inflation was unchanged at 3.4% y\/y, in line with forecasts, as lower housing and food costs offset a sharp rise in fuel prices.<\/li>\n
  • \u200bThe US Federal Reserve raised rates by 25bps – its first hike since 2023 – and left the door open to a further hike before year-end to bring inflation back to target.\u200b<\/li>\n
  • Other central banks also acted on inflation: the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan raised rates – Japan to its highest level in decades, while the Bank of England held steady.<\/li>\n
  • The US 10-year bond yield climbed above 5% for the first time since 2023, on inflation concerns and rising government debt, stoking fears of slower growth and weighing on markets.<\/li>\n
  • Middle East tensions stayed elevated, pushing oil above $100\/bbl intra-month before cooling to $98\/bbl as key pipelines were restored in Saudi Arabia – still an 8.3% gain over the month.<\/li>\n
  • The Trump-Xi summit in Washington touched on AI cooperation, though the more concrete outcome was an extended trade truce and lower tariffs between the two countries.<\/li>\n
  • Gold fell 8.5% to around $4,200\/oz as investors rotated into the US dollar on the prospect of higher US interest rates, with the dollar strengthening 2% over the month.<\/li>\n
  • Equity markets were weaker for the month: developed market equities (MSCI World) declined 1.2% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.5%, while emerging markets (MSCI EM) fell 0.8% (all in US dollars), as rising US yields and a stronger dollar weighed on EM economies.<\/li>\n
  • Over the past year, emerging markets have outpaced developed markets, returning 26.7% versus 15.7% (both in US dollars), led by AI-driven semiconductor demand in key Asian economies.<\/li>\n
  • <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \u00a0Local (South Africa):<\/strong><\/h4>\n
      \n
    • The local economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter – the weakest growth since 2024 – as weaker mining, manufacturing and trade activity weighed on output. The Reserve Bank still expects a rebound in the second half, with full-year 2026 growth projected at around 1.1%, although the outlook remains fragile given ongoing global shocks.<\/span><\/li>\n
    • SA inflation ticked up slightly, from 4.3% to 4.4%, as higher services costs (insurance, hotels) outweighed relief from lower fuel and food prices.<\/li>\n
    • In response, the SARB unanimously raised the repo rate by 25bps to 7.25%, and lifted its inflation forecasts to 4.4% for this year and 4.0% for 2027, reflecting geopolitical concerns and the need to keep rates higher for longer to contain inflation.<\/li>\n
    • For the month, SA equities (FTSE\/JSE ALSI) fell 5.8%, and significantly underperformed the broader emerging market index, dragged down by resources (-9.8%). Bonds (FTSE\/JSE ALBI) were flat, while listed property gained 0.5%.<\/li>\n
    • Over the past year, SA equities have returned 4.6%, trailing global shares\u2019 10.0% in rand terms – a marked cooling from the double-digit gains seen earlier this year as the resources-led rally lost steam alongside a slowing gold price. SA bonds, by contrast, have shown resilience as a diversifier over the same period, returning 12.8% versus SA equities\u2019 4.6%.<\/li>\n
    • The rand weakened against the US dollar, moving from R16.12 to R16.42, as the stronger dollar weighed on EM sentiment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      This publication provides a monthly review of major indexes, important macroeconomic indicators and an overview of the highs and lows of the stock market for the period.\t<\/p>","protected":false},"author":11016,"featured_media":4379,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[82009,3256],"tags":[],"post_folder":[],"class_list":["post-4382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-home-carousel","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11016"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4382"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4382\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4388,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4382\/revisions\/4388"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4379"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4382"},{"taxonomy":"post_folder","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/surf.sun.ac.za\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_folder?post=4382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}